Monday, August 9, 2010

The Apple Market Share Myth

According to proponents of this myth, a vendor’s market share numbers speak for themselves as a critically important factor in selecting a technology product or platform. They're wrong, here's why.

Why the Myth weaving
Market share is being used frequently spreads silent. It has been used by''n Apple Macintosh since its introduction over twenty years ago. Professional disagree-to say there has long insisted that Mac market share would be prevented from taking advantage of the limited economies of scale hardware was driving cheaper PCs, as well as extensive software development forces which present a wide range of various PC applications.

Ironically, those making the biggest stink about Apple historically low proportion of the overall PC market share has started to attack the majority of the iPod music player market. They are a joy to preach about the demise of the iPod because its market share down to 75% reporting of all music devices. If market share is so vitally important, why does the same analysts advise people to march to buy on the market leading iPod?

Clearly, this use of contradictory facts to suit their purposes indicates something wrong with the conclusions drawn from simple market share numbers. It also calls into question the credibility of those who use market share to make broad, sweeping generalizations.

Like most legends, there are elements of truth buried within the layers of misconceptions. Let's pull apart what the market is, how it can be misinterpreted, and how the numbers can easily be skewed to present false information.

Solving with Extreme Prejudice
The definition of market share is easy: it's a percentage of sales or specific vendor products within the overall market. Much more interesting, however, the actual definition of the market in question, or qualitative value of proportion given the market. These provide much more useful, and almost always glossed over when the number of market share base is being thrown around.

To begin, look at the figures Apple's share of the market historically. Actual numbers vary slightly depending on the source and methodology. In this article, I use consistent numbers from Gartner, and reference where and when the numbers are recorded.

In 1980, Gartner reported Apple's share of the global computer market is 15.8%. In 1996, they report Apple's shares as 4.6%. Last year, they reported market share Apple's at 2.2%. From those numbers, it would appear that once belonged to Apple extensive control over the PC world, and has been slipping ever since the pool of irrelevance. That is the story silent injectors like to be involved anyway. However, the numbers tell the story very useful without some consideration of their context.

Myth in the PC Market: 1980-1996
There was no PC in 1980, and was not Mac yet either. Computer makers are selling a product category, brand new, and the vibrant and diverse market for home and business computers including a wide range of machines made by various companies.

The market that Apple was fifteen percent share in 1980 was nothing like the market today. Only the early adopters of flame edge even purchase computers, and primarily as a novelty. Still, many more than five major manufacturers of computers, so a very significant portion of Apple compared its competitors.

Fifteen years later, Apple was just under 5% of the market. According to the WAG industry, this case Apple has failed to broadly license their operating system to other vendors. Instead, Microsoft has blossomed as the provider of DOS software for market dominant IBM PC compatible, and has just released a program for DOS and copied a lot of looks and feels Apple's Macintosh.

Windows 95 was delivered late; only arrived in recent days in 1995, so by 1996 there were a few months old. Had he managed to collect 95% of the market in less than a single year? Clearly not. Apple's market share has changed dramatically over the half decade before and not because Apple has slipped dramatically in popularity, but because the definition of the PC market has changed so significantly.

Between 1980 and 1996, floods in business PCs, replacing calculators, dumb terminals, and paperwork done in common by hand. Apple has made some ineffectual stabs at joining the business market, without much success.

In the early 80s, they are targeting businesses with the release of the Apple III, which upgrade their poorly built highly successful Apple II. Went nowhere, and Apple returns to construct new variations of their Apple II line, which continued to sell well for schools and home users.

Apple's next generation of computers, the Lisa and Macintosh, aimed at the business market is also exploding. Their unique software development requires significant new investment by developers, including new human interface guidelines mastered, much more than is necessary to create DOS apps simple.

The problems solved by the Mac's interface is clear value of new innovative graphic artists and designers, but less so for users who simply recording data, and of little benefit to any office worker drone that was simple , connecting with the main current as client dumb terminals.

Apple's Macs are so uniquely valuable for graphic designers that Apple overprice their hardware and software integrated product and still sell lots of them. Apple kept their big profit margins flush with cash, and enables them to further develop the Mac System Software, and work on new generations of products wizzy ideas as QuickTime and handheld Newton, and shares in the co-develop a range of achievements and failures: PowerPC, Taligent, OpenDoc, A / UX, among many others.

While Apple was profitable to sell as many Macs as they could build, flooding of generic, general purpose PCs are being used to serve markets quickly Apple was able or interested in entering. Apple would have been happy to sell Macs businesses running Microsoft Word and Excel applications, but businesses did not pay for software for Apple's innovative hardware premium. They want a cheap place, and before 1996, which usually means WordPerfect and Lotus 1-2-3 running on PC DOS base.

A low cost PC terminal with minimal functionality and stupid, but simple text interface that fits perfectly for the millions of office workers in cubes. Apple could have reduced their premium, innovative products to build PCs, but that would have thrown away Apples''first clear in profitability would have been forced to compete in a market with only about shaving the price of hardware goods.

Or, they could have tried to sell their Mac software to run on PCs instead of DOS, but this would have been a problem as well. They had to translate all their efforts developer PCs, with no general way to create binaries. That would, of necessity, kill their hardware sales profitable. NEXT trying this strategy and failed, even with their technology to provide binaries in general.

Now, PC DOS has low operating requirements, and no magic way to run a full operating system upgrade without considerable graphic. Who would this appeal to Mac software? There would be business users who did not want to invest in Macs have been far more likely to adopt Mac software if they would have asked in the same way to consolidate all their machines office workers' to do so.

The idea that Apple significantly Bwnglerodd control the PC world is simple and plausible sounding bit of hindsight speculative. If IBM could not deliver and establish OS / 2 machines on their own, how could Apple have? He tried the next two nextstep Sun Solaris to enter the PC operating system market, but failed to get any traction for the same reasons: computers in the early 1990s is crap that could barely run a graphical operating system.

Myth in the PC Market: 1996-2006
During the ten years following Windows 95's release, the Mac market share will appear to come from 5% to 2%, but the numbers are similarly betrayed truth without considering some context. Apple is quite obviously doing better today, and has a more prosperous for the future than they had in 1996, when they were at their lowest point of operational, technical, and strategic failure ever. How is it possible that they now receive less than half their 1996 market share?

Before 1996, the PC market has already grown to include a number of market segments was little to do with Apple, as noted above. So, while their share of the overall PC market is useful in comparing the performance of Apple to IBM, Dell, or Compaq, it is not relevant when considering the value or utility of Apple's product or platform.

If Apple had tried to build a Windows computer, or to compete against Windows as an operating system on PC hardware, the overall PC market share numbers that are relevant, but not Apple. Here is why.

Microsoft management, with some difficulty, to move DOS to Windows users in the second half of 1990 through tightly bundled DOS into Windows 95. That killed any competition from other versions of DOS, while also making it no more expensive to run Windows 95: it was free with every new PC.

This is another example of Microsoft software exclusive bundling to cheat the market by wielding price as a competitive weapon against commercial alternatives without actually reducing their own prices. This is exactly the kind of monopoly was the U.S. history of struggle, but Microsoft managed to avoid enforcement of laws against predatory pricing until their situation so completely that he could not effect any competitors in the market.

So, not only has the hardware side of PC market growing to include areas far beyond competing in the Apple market, but the software side of the PC market has failed completely to act as the free market. The failure of the U.S. Justice Department to uphold the law has served effectively turn Windows, the software side of the PC market, into a government-sponsored monopoly.

Monopoly is not only a high market share, but rather a unique situation with the ability to treat the market to prevent the natural balance created by competition. By killing the markets for DOS and Windows alternatives, Microsoft continues to enjoy fat profits without having to lower their prices software: there were no competitors!

Low cost PC hardware attached to the costly software license Windows to create a market where the demand for close alternatives to Microsoft's software masked by price dumping: potential competitors were competing against what appears to be a free product free.

The next time you hear a market share numbers being thrown around, considering the context. Numbers do not speak for themselves, they require interpretation key. Next up: more nails in the coffin of the Apple Market Share Myth: The number of slippery, quality vs. quantity, market definitions, and a closer look at the iPod market share: Market Share Myth: focus!

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